The Market is going down, down, down. I want to still make money so I am now buying option PUTS.
I am buying QQQTT PUT option on stock QQQQ

AT&T outlook not so grim, analyst says

By Jeffry Bartash
Jun 25, 2008 13:33:00 (ET)

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — In a full-fledged defense of AT&T Inc., the brokerage Bernstein Research raised its rating on the company’s stock and said that concerns about the carrier’s financial well-being are overdone.

In a lengthy report, Bernstein analyst Craig Moffett raised his rating to outperform from market perform and said that AT&T should weather the current economic slowdown better than most rivals.

The good word temporarily halted a retreat in AT&T (T, Trade ) stock, which was up 2.5% to $35.12 Wednesday. Before the day’s gains, the value of AT&T shares had fallen 15% over the past month relative to the S&P 500 Index (SPX ).

Concerns about AT&T were triggered in large part by the company’s recent announcement that handset subsidies for the latest version of the Apple iPhone could cost as much as 12 cents in earnings per share in the current fiscal year.

Other worries abound. Investors are concerned about slower growth in U.S. wireless market, rumors of higher network spending and an erosion in AT&T’s traditional wireline business.

“In short order, sentiment in the telecom sector has gone from bullish to guarded to … well, slightly queasy,” Moffett wrote.

He believes all those concerns are overblown. Start with the wireless market: With most Americans now owning cell phones, it’s true that growth in new subscribers is likely to slow. What’s more, rivals such as Sprint Nextel Corp. (S, Trade ) and T-Mobile USA have cut the cost of some monthly plans, raising the prospect of an industry price war.

Yet Moffett believes that AT&T’s strategy to cut the up-front cost of the iPhone in half to start at $200 will help immunize the carrier.

“AT&T’s aggressive handset pricing on the iPhone means AT&T is likely a share gainer in wireless, which will help buffer AT&T from industry-wide subscriber-growth deceleration,” he said.

Moffett also discounts the possibility that AT&T will adopt a more costly approach to connecting its customers via fiber-optic cable, the goal of which is to provide faster Internet speeds and pay-TV service.

While Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ, Trade ) is spending $20 billion-plus to bring fiber cable to the curbside, AT&T has chosen a much cheaper, though often ridiculed strategy that relies heavily on software improvements.

From Moffett’s standpoint, AT&T’s so-called U-Verse strategy makes sense. The analyst pointed out that AT&T’s customers are more geographically dispersed compared with Verizon’s (VZ, Trade ).

“Despite rumors to the contrary, we believe there is virtually no chance that AT&T will abandon its U-Verse strategy in favor of a more capital-intensive” approach similar to Verizon’s, according to Moffett.

As for the company’s traditional wireline business, Moffett said there’s a good chance that rising demand from business customers could offset weakness in the consumer market.

Network bandwidth has become more constricted as data-intensive video applications become more widespread on the Internet, he added. The result is rising demand for capacity and growth in the enterprise market for the first time in years.

“We believe the enterprise segment is likely also much less vulnerable to recession than it has been in the past,” Moffett commented.

To be sure, he acknowledged that AT&T “is too big to hide” from negative trends in the telecom industry and the U.S. economy. In Moffett’s view, though, phone companies still represent a safer haven for investors “than the market as a whole.”

I bought MEE today. This is a great long play for the coal sector

symbol FXAIQ
3.38 % increase in stock price equals a Call Option Double

Grain prices continues to vex investors as the crop-growing region of our nation struggles with the worst floods in 15 years. To make matter worse, the Mississippi River could jump over the top of as many as 33 levees, threatening hundreds of thousands of acres of farmland if sandbagging efforts fail, according to a map released by the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers.

Although the price of corn fell Wednesday on speculation that flooding will soon ease current prices have sparked concerns that demand from ethanol makers and those who make livestock feed will diminish.

For further insights into the damage and what it means for the ag trade we turn to Agrium AGRIUM AGU
CEO Mike Wilson. Following is a synopsis of his main points.

Are your prices sustainable?

”Prices are sustainable as long as the grain fundamentals stay strong,” says Wilson. “If crops stay up then (farmers) can afford to use our products.”

Why do farmers choose your product?

“We’re selling increased yield. We provide the latest technology in seeds, fertilizer, and nutrients. We give the farmer increased yield and higher return,” explains Wilson.

What are farmers telling you about the floods?

“Some farmers are going back to the field and others are saying I’ll take what I can get,” he says.

How’s the future look?

“Our priority is growth. We’ve done 7 acquisitions in the last 2 years. We’re unique because we bridge the whole value chain. We buy into the retail sector, into the specialty environmental sector, and the nutrient sector,” Wilson explains.

Unusual options action in Schlumberger SCHLUMBERGER SLB and BJ Services BJS
reveals OptionMonster Jon Najarian. The call buying suggests to me both are going higher. I can’t think of a reason why you wouldn’t want to be in on these. There could be a lot of upside here.

Monsanto (MON) popped 5%. The agriculture products company submitted its SmartStax insect and weed platform to the EPA for approval. – Could go to $150

CREE popped on Tuesday on speculation that the firm is a takeover target. How much truth is there to this market rumor?

According to Cannacord Adams analyst Jonathan Dorsheimer, Cree is often a target of takeover talk and he doesn’t think this one is true. Dorsheimer likes Cree long term, but thinks “the shares are overvalued” at the present moment.

UNG -United States Natural Gas Fund

APA - Apache Corporation

DVN - Devon Energy Corporation

CHK - Chesapeake Energy Corporation

Dawson Geophysical company is a provider of onshore seismic data services. Do your homework, this stock has upside potential. http://www.dawson3d.com/